(978) 927-9102

Why Today’s Mortgage Debt Isn’t a Sign of a Housing Market Crash


One major reason why we’re not heading toward a foreclosure crisis is the high level of equity homeowners have today. Unlike in the last housing bubble, where many homeowners owed more than their homes were worth, today’s homeowners have far more equity than debt.

That’s a big part of the reason why even though mortgage debt is at an all-time high, this isn’t 2008 all over again. As Bill McBride, Housing Analyst for Calculated Risk, explains:

“With the recent house price increases, some people are worried about a new housing bubble – but mortgage debt isn’t a concern . . .”

Today’s homeowners are in a much stronger position than ever before. So, let’s break it down and see why today’s mortgage debt isn’t anything to fear.

More Equity, Less Risk of Foreclosures

According to the St. Louis Fed, total homeowner equity is nearly triple the total mortgage debt today (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the rise and fall of mortgagesHigh equity makes it less likely for homeowners to face foreclosure because they have more options. If someone struggles to make their mortgage payments, they could potentially sell their house and still come out ahead thanks to their built-up equity.

Even if home values were to dip, most homeowners would still have a comfortable cushion of equity. That’s a big contrast to the 2008 crisis, where many homeowners were underwater on their mortgages and had few options to avoid foreclosure.

Delinquency Rates Are Still Near Historic Lows

Another reassuring sign is that, according to the NY Fed, the number of mortgage payments that are more than 90 days late is still near historic lows (see graph below):

a graph showing a line going downThis is partly due to a variety of programs designed to help homeowners through temporary hardships. As Marina Walsh, VP of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says:

“. . . servicers are helping at-risk homeowners avoid foreclosures through loan workout options that can mitigate temporary distress.”

So, even if someone falls behind on their payments, there are support systems in place to help them avoid foreclosure.

Low Unemployment Helps Keep the Market Stable

One other important factor is today’s low unemployment rate. More people have stable jobs, which means they’re better able to afford their mortgage payments. As Archana Pradhan, Principal Economist at CoreLogicexplains:

“Low unemployment numbers have helped reduce the overall delinquency rate . . .”

During the last housing crisis, unemployment was much higher, which led to a wave of foreclosures. Today’s unemployment rate is very different (see graph below):

a graph of employment and financial crisisThat stability in how many people are employed is one of the reasons the market doesn’t have the same risks as it did the last time.

There’s no need to worry about a wave of distressed sales like the one we saw in 2008. Most homeowners today are employed and have low-interest mortgages they can afford, so they’re able to make their payments. As McBride states:

“The bottom line is there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble.” 

Bottom Line

While mortgage debt is high, rest assured the market isn’t on the brink of another crash. Instead, most homeowners are in a strong position. If you have questions or concerns, let’s connect.

What’s Motivating Homeowners To Move Right Now

\


Over the past few years, some homeowners have decided to delay their move because they don’t want to sell and take on a higher mortgage rate on their next home. Maybe you’re thinking the same thing. And honestly, that’s no surprise. It’s a very common roadblock and is one of the biggest factors that’s kept the number of homes on the market so low for so long.

But a growing number of homeowners are deciding they just can’t wait any longer. Often, it’s because of personal or lifestyle change. As Redfin explains:

“Some homeowners are opting to bite the bullet and give up their low rate in order to move. Many are selling because a major life event like a job change, or divorce . . .”

If you’re weighing the decision to move, take a look at some of the top reasons others are choosing to sell. You might find those are reason enough for you to move now, too.

It’s Time for a Change

A new job in a different city, a desire to be closer to family, or simply wanting a change of scenery can all spark the need to sell.

Let’s say you’ve landed a great job offer that requires relocating, listing your current home quickly may be the next logical step.

There’s Just Not Enough Space in Your Current House

Sometimes, your current home just doesn’t fit your lifestyle anymore. A growing family, the need for a home office, or more room for entertaining can all drive the decision to upgrade to a larger space.

As an example, if you live in a condo and have a baby on the way, selling might be the next best move so you can find a larger home that suits your needs.

Retirement or Wanting To Downsize

On the flip side, some homeowners are ready to downsize. This could be due to children moving out, retirement, or simply wanting less to maintain.

If you’re newly retired and dreaming of a simpler lifestyle, downsizing to a smaller home could free up both time and resources to enjoy this new chapter of life.

Changes in Relationship Status

Big changes like divorce, separation, or marriage often lead to a need for new living arrangements.

If you just went through a divorce, selling the house you once shared may allow both of you to move forward and find a living situation that works better for you now.

Health and Mobility Needs

Health concerns, especially those that affect mobility, can also drive the decision to sell. A home that once worked well might no longer suit your needs.

If this sounds like your experience right now, selling your current home to move into a more accessible space, or even using the proceeds for assisted living, could significantly improve your quality of life.

Bottom Line

Selling your home isn’t just about market conditions or mortgage rates—it’s also about making the best decision for your lifestyle and future. As Bankrate says:

 

“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal choice. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based . . . Your future plans and goals should be a significant part of the equation.”

 

If a major life change has you thinking about moving, now might still be the right time to sell. Let’s connect so you have an expert to help you navigate the process.